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China in 2030
Sam Chambers sifts through predictions on the future of Chinese shipping
"Prophecy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks." So said author Mark Twain. Sticking their necks out are British institutions, Lloyd’s Register, QinetiQ and the University of Strathclyde in their new report, Global Marine Trends 2030.
Demographics will ensure shipping will be prosperous come the year 2030, the study suggests.
The report sees seaborne trade increasing from 9bn tonnes annually to between 19-24bn tonnes.
2030 could usher in a world where China would own a quarter of the merchant fleet, growing from 15% in 2010 to 19 to 24% in 2030 rivalling Greece and the rest of the European countries.
Almost half of offshore oil is taken from the deepest waters and there are 100 times as many offshore wind platforms, while the tanker fleet grows the slowest of all the major ship types.
The four nations with the fastest growing GDP per capita in the timeframe are China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia.
“China’s manufacturing sector will be under pressure to transform from labour-intensive to higher productivity business,” the study suggested. “This requires innovative technology to upgrade China’s competiveness.”
The world’s middle class in 2030 is likely to grow 40-50% from 2010 levels, with China and India counting for nearly two-thirds of this growth. By 2030, China’s middle class will be the second largest, after the US.
GDP rankings per city see China to the fore once again. Shanghai will jump from 19th to third in the world’s city economic rankings. Four Chinese citie ... More>>