Dalian: This year has been a tough one for the Chinese economy, and yet it has come through it in a manner to make most in the West envious. Next year, the consensus is that the Chinese economy, unarguably the most important nation affecting world shipping, will perform in the 7.5 to 8.5% growth area. Nevertheless, the new leadership will have much to do.
Citi Bank reckons both GDP and manufacturing will be firm next year. The US bank’s concerns are on the brittle nature of real estate and the local banks, which is likely to see less loans being issued. Citi reckons the appreciation of the RMB will lessen in 2013.
The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) believes the adjustment in real estate market will lead to investment declining. CASS sees GDP growth next year of 8.2% in the world’s most populous nation.
The Asian Development Bank, meanwhile, thinks the growth of the Chinese economy in 2013 will be lower than earlier expected, but the financial stimulus packages of central and local governments will help the nation to a stable year.
HSBC Bank chief economist Stephen King sees China's GDP growing 8.6% in 2013.
"Even if the Chinese economy is slowing, its impact on the global economy is paradoxically rising," he noted, something that is also true of world shipping.
SinoShip’s own economist Paul French reckons 2013 will be all about steeply rising costs. “The rising costs of business - wages, rents, inputs, energy - will erode advantages in business and manufacturing competitiveness,” he said, “while the rising cost of living - inflationary pressure, prices, utilites, social welfare - could dampen consumer spending and trip up the Party's stated desire to boost consumption.”
On prospects for Chinese shipping another SinoShip contributor Matthew Flynn in Hong Kong said: “The simple reality is that shipping and shipbuilding have performed poorly in 2012. As a consequence, I don't expect that many in China are planning big maritime bets in 2013. For the punters at today's race track, shipping is simply not seen as the good horse to back. This should create some decent purchase opportunities.” [28/12/12]